The Scottish economy could completely regain ground lost during the Covid-19 pandemic within the next two years, according to a best-case scenario put forward today.
Analysis from KPMG also suggests that a continuing successful vaccine rollout and a potential post-restrictions “consumer bounce” could see Scotland’s recovery outpace that seen across the wider UK.
Scotland’s economy took an estimated 9.6 per cent hit in 2020 as the pandemic impacted almost every sector, compared to a UK-wide drop in GDP of 9.9 per cent. But KPMG said Scotland could see annual GDP growth in 2021 of up to 5.5 per cent, compared to 4.6 per cent UK-wide, and up to 5.8 per cent in 2022, compared with 5.6 per cent across the UK.
Although KPMG said the data offers some “real hope and optimism” for Scotland’s prospects of a post-Covid economic recovery, it cautioned that there are concerns that unemployment may rise significantly towards the end of 2021, driven by the long-term effects of Brexit and the winding down of government support measures, including the furlough schemes.